Risks affecting future operating conditions and the ultimate impact of the project
Société du Grand Paris will not be the Grand Paris
Express operator. It is however responsible for the
successful handover of operations and maintenance.
There are two types of risks that may affect future
operating conditions:
– Systemic risks are all risks directly associated with
economic growth. For example, these risks relate
to future economic growth patterns, changes
to financial conditions and interest rate risk,
demographic changes, etc. In assessing the
socio-economic profitability of the project, these
risks are specifically addressed by the method
recommended by the General Secretariat
for Investment (SGPI) to analyse the health of
the balance sheet;
– Non-systemic risks are those risks that are not
directly associated with economic growth. These are
primarily risks affecting the benefits of the project
(income, non-monetary benefits, etc.) and in
particular those affecting future passenger numbers
on the Grand Paris Express.
Faced with these risks, Société du Grand Paris has
selected two levels of analysis to characterise
the attractiveness of the project:
– Project opportunity: the benefits associated with
the socio-economic assessment depend directly on
the forecast passenger numbers on the various lines
and the wider economic effects, which are linked to
the transport network’s role as an “engine of
growth”;
– Project design: traffic forecasts are a determining
factor in the sizing of structures, systems and rolling
stock capacity.
From the outset of the project, Société du Grand Paris
has conducted several studies aimed at consolidating
the socio-demographic growth assumptions used
to qualify and quantify the project’s benefit, notably
through the use of “LUTI” (Land Use Transport
Interaction) models. This resulted in an assessment
of the range of benefits associated with the possible
impact of the completion of the infrastructure on
national and European growth.
To reduce the risk of oversizing or undersizing systems
and structures, Société du Grand Paris compared
the data produced by several traffic forecast modelling
tools, in particular the models used by the Regional
and Interdepartmental Directorate for the
Environment, Planning and Transport (DRIEAT), RATP
and Île-de-France Mobilités.
IDENTITY
RISKS AND CHALLENGES
Risks
CSR APPROACH
2020 ACTIVITY
